MLS penultimate weekend

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51-47-7 +2.68 (staked 343.08, +.08%)

- what a brutal season so far :(

Philadelphia vs Toronto
- TFC have their biggest game of the year next midweek against Dallas so I don't expect many first teamers to start. Toronto have certainly played well lately but they've still just won once on the road all season and have allowed 3-2-2-3-2-4-2-5-3 in their past 9 league away games. They've been eliminated from post-season play already so really no need to take any chances with injuries when the Concacaf Champions League qualification is in their hands. Philly had been playing some really poor football, especially defensively, but these last few weeks have been a great turnaround and now they lead the Eastern Conference and are unbeaten in 7. Their results against fellow eastern teams, especially at home, have been the reason for their top seeding as they're currently unbeaten at 4-3-0 with this one home match remaining. When this team plays defense they're really tough to beat and against a likely TFC "B" team I can't see beyond a home win. Earlier match ended 6-2 for Philly in Toronto so hopefully Philly aren't overlooking TFC. Besides that, the only issue is potentially windy conditions but according to the weather the wind should be pretty much down to just a breeze by game time. I'd play it down to -225 as bookies are giving us the same odds that Chicago and DC recently had against Toronto at home and Philly are a level above both those teams.

Philadelphia 3.5u -160

should have a few others but one bet really depends on POR/HOU result tonight as far as staking, so will wait.
 

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DC United vs Chicago Fire
- after last night's win by Houston the Fire are eliminated from the playoffs so will just be playing for pride. They lost the US Open Cup final last week and then lost to Dallas in midweek so spirits are very low and the defense is decimated with missing players. Offensively they're doing well scoring 11 times in their past 5 leagues games and getting shutout just once in their last 12. DC in a must win situation trailing a playoff spot by 5 points but with a game in hand over RBNY and only 9 points out of these last 3 games, all at home, will do. DC's issue is defense where they've conceded in 8 of last 9 overall and 9 of last 10 at home. They've scored in 9 of 10 at home themselves and have netted 13 times in their past 4 at home. Their 1.6 goals per game allowed at home is by far the worst defensive record in the east but their 1.9 gpg scored is among the best and the over is 7-1 in last 8 played in DC. DC home games avg 3.5 gpg while Chicago's road games are 2.81 and since I fully expect both teams to score and, keeping in mind a 1-1 result is a disaster for DC, I expect many goals. My line is over 3 at 1.91

DC United / Chicago over 2.5 5u -120
 

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LA Galaxy vs Chivas USA
- lineups just in and LA going with regulars which is a surprise with Motagua match in midweek. Donovan and Keane are both out but pretty much all other first choices are in except Ricketts in goal. They've been unbeaten in 20 meaningful matches at Home Depot so going against them isn't easy. CUSA have won or drawn 10 of 16 here this year and haven't beaten LA in 4 years but they've only been beaten by more than 1 goal once in past 10 meetings. CUSA with some nice attacking options and I think they'll score here and can grab either a 2-2 draw or finally get over the hump and beat the Galaxy. For sure they're the more motivated club as LA have nothing to play for here and just want to get out without any injuries for Motagua.

CUSA +1 1.25u -130
LA/CUSA over 2.5 1u -108
over 1.5 1H .5u +200
 

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